For those interested in some background reading for my article “How to confound Christians with bad arguments: #4 Believe what is probable, not merely possible” I recommend my two-part critique of John Loftus’ essay “Christianity is wildly improbable,” titled “The End of Christianity? (Part 4)” and “John W. Loftus and a Swede named Mario“. Those two articles were written in 2011. A year later John finally offered a response which you can read here. I offered my rejoinder to him here: “Which is more wildly improbable: Christianity being true or Loftus coming up with a good argument?”
In this back and forth you can get a good overview on how the appeal to prior probabilities has a superficial rhetorical sheen but little more.